Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：经济数据)

• ·全球知名排名前九的炒币交易所 2025全球九大数字货币交易所排名
• ·比特儿怎么玩
• ·填平脸部凹陷要花多少钱？脸部凹陷填充多少钱
• ·股票结构化
• ·ustd_虚拟货币app排行榜前十名 最新版本
• ·pi币官方版app下载 pi币官方软件最新下载
• ·数字货币期货交易平台排行_虚拟货币四大交易平台
• ·数字火必钱包排名及最佳选择
• ·2025年比特币app十大排名榜最新版介绍
• ·微信里微粒贷是真的吗，应该如何开通微粒？
• ·手起水泡痒难忍？根除妙招一次看！手起水泡很痒怎么办如何根除
• ·最具影响力的柴犬币以太币交易中心下载_币圈都在用的柴犬币以太币交易所软件推荐
• ·桂林山水景点在哪里-桂林山水景点在哪里高铁
• ·全国币圈免费行情软件app 前十最强币圈免费行情软件app排行
• ·汪峰身价到底有多少亿？汪峰身价多少亿
• ·etcclassic钱包-etce钱包服务