Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：基金优选)

• ·火币网2015
• ·区块链数字货币交易平台APP
• ·雾是什么是什么
• ·系统币交易平台
• ·Bitwise: Ethereum is like the 'Microsoft' in the memory blockchain, ETH's performance may improve by the end of the year
• ·澳大利亚比特币ETF持仓增至420枚BTC市值近6738万美元
• ·Bithumb韩元市场上线SXT，投资者关注焦点
• ·克雷肯（Kraken）揭露朝鲜黑客伪装“史蒂文·史密斯”申请加密交易所工作的企图
• ·The DeFi project supported by the Trump family confirmed the rumor of issuing coins: no pre-sale, non transferable, 63% public sale
• ·理财产品收益属于什么收入
• ·请问光大银行信用卡审批中和审核中有什么区别啊？
• ·库神钱包价格
• ·公司内部聚餐费计入什么科目
• ·500eth是多少
• ·虚拟币交易所前10名单 虚拟币区块链app交易所排名
• ·币圈空投平台